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Semo's 2016 NFL Draft - Round 1


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#1 Semo

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 11:52 PM

1 - Tennessee - Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State
2 - Cleveland - Carson Wentz QB North Dakota State
3 - San Diego - Laremy Tunsil OT Ole Miss
4 - Dallas - Joey Bosa DE Ohio State
5 - Jacksonville - Myles Jack OLB UCLA
6 - Philadelphia - (from Baltimore) - Jared Goff QB California
7 - San Francisco - Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss
8 - Baltimore - (from Philadelphia) - DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
9 - Tampa Bay - Vernon Hargreaves III CB Florida
10 - NY Giants - Reggie Ragland ILB Alabama
11 - Chicago - Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
12 - New Orleans - Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
13 - Miami - Ezekiel Elliot RB Ohio State
14 - Oakland - Eli Apple CB Ohio State
15 - Los Angelos - Darron Lee OLB Ohio State
16 - Detroit - Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
17 - Atlanta - Leonard Floyd DE Georgia
18 - Indianapolis - Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
19 - Buffalo - A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
20 - NY Jets - Paxton Lynch QB Memphis
21 - Washington - Andrew Billings DT Baylor
22 - Houston - Corey Coleman WR Baylor
23 - Minnesota - Noah Spence DE Eastern Kentucky
24 - Cincinnati - Jarran Reed DT Alabama
25 - Pittsburgh - William Jackson III CB Houston
26 - Seattle - Taylor Decker OT Ohio State
27 - Green Bay -Jason Spriggs OT Indiana
28 - Kansas City - Vernon Butler DE/DT Louisiana Tech
29 - Arizona - Mackensie Alexander CB Clemson
30 - Carolina - Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole Miss
31 - Baltimore (from Denver) - Emmanuel Ogbah DE/OLB Oklahoma State
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#2 Mugsy

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Posted 06 April 2016 - 01:01 PM

Good job man... Here's a few thoughts...

 

I'm not sure Treadwell is a top 10 pick anymore. That slow 40 time could hurt. He could be the next Alshon Jeffery but it's more likely he will end up the next Dwayne Jarrett. I'd be ok with KC taking him way back at the end of the first but he's not a top 10 pick imo.

 

I think Darren Lee will go before Ragland. He really compares to Bobby Wagner.

 

I think too many people are over analyzing Mackensie Alexander. The dude hasn't given up a TD in two years. I think he's a top 20 pick. 

 

Carolina might be hesitant to take Robert Nkemdiche after going through all the Greg Hardy drama. I bet they are done dealing with mentally unstable people for a while.

 

Apple to Oakland makes a lot of sense. It's a copy cat league and that will give Oakland two big corners.

 

Floyd to Atlanta is nice. He will play that Bruce Irvin type role in Dan Quinn's Seattle Defense. 

 

Billings to Washington is not a reach. That seems likely.

 

I love the Butler to KC pick. Can you imagine a package with Butler, Poe, and Howard out there? Anyone behind them could blitz successfully. 

 

I agree about A'Shawn Robinson being a top 20 pick. I have seen him falling in a lot of mocks and he's been labeled as "lazy." Truthfully, most fat guys are lazy. The bottom line is that he's a better player than guys like Billings and Reed. 

 

Good job dude.



#3 kccrow

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Posted 08 April 2016 - 01:24 AM

Good take SEMO, as always.

 

You did get me thinking about trades again. I really think someone makes a deal to hop up to #3 in a trade with San Diego for Goff. It's either San Fran or Philly IMO. I just have a feeling right now that Jones is bluffing about Dallas not going QB in round 1.



#4 Mugsy

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Posted 08 April 2016 - 03:10 AM

I am not a Goff fan. He Isn't the least bit clutch and he isn't exactly a good leader. I would not take him in the top ten.

#5 kccrow

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Posted 08 April 2016 - 11:36 PM

I am not a Goff fan. He Isn't the least bit clutch and he isn't exactly a good leader. I would not take him in the top ten.

 

Don't start with your clutch shit again... 

 

You're college football takes are seriously flawed if you didn't see how bad California was on defense the past few years. Pretty fucking hard to be "clutch" when your defense gives up 530 yards a game your 1st year and 512 yards a game your 2nd year. They finally became a winning team in his 3rd year giving up 454 yards per game. The fact the guy never had a season under 60% completion is pretty outstanding. The guy looks like the next Aaron Rodgers and you're going to measure his fucking "clutch-ness" on a terrible football team? Gimme a break Mugs, that's some serious shit.



#6 Mugsy

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Posted 09 April 2016 - 03:05 PM

QB is probably my best position to evaluate. I am rarely wrong about them. Goff has choked multiple times and he is not a strong leader.

You are crazy if you don't think front offices put emphasis on leadership and the clutch factor. It's why Russell Wilson went in the 3rd instead of the 5th like you projected. He had six 4th quarter comebacks at Wisconsin. Something like 40% of NFL games come down to the final drive. It's a big deal.

Last, leadership and ability in the clutch are the reasons Wentz will be drafted ahead of Goff. Think about that for a minute. It's not that you can't explain it or write it off as the Browns being stupid. It's that you can't see it and don't want to. Everyone has Wentz higher. Not just the Browns.

#7 Mugsy

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Posted 14 April 2016 - 07:15 PM

Rams moved to #1 and paid a King's ransom for Wentz. They want to make a splash because they are back in L.A. but, they'll pass on the hometown kid (Goff). They'll take the smaller school guy over big school guy. They take the guy with weaker stats who played against weaker talent. Gee, I wonder why? Leadership ability and clutch ability have nothing to do with it right crow? :lol:

Reminds me of when Tennesee took McNair from Alcorn State over Kerry Collins with the 3rd pick in the draft. Wonder why??? Hmmmm

No team is gonna pay that many draft picks for a guy who shits the bed in big moments. You're college takes are seriously flawed dude. You can't see the forest for the trees.

#8 kccrow

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 12:22 AM

Rams moved to #1 and paid a King's ransom for Wentz. They want to make a splash because they are back in L.A. but, they'll pass on the hometown kid (Goff). They'll take the smaller school guy over big school guy. They take the guy with weaker stats who played against weaker talent. Gee, I wonder why? Leadership ability and clutch ability have nothing to do with it right crow? :lol:

Reminds me of when Tennesee took McNair from Alcorn State over Kerry Collins with the 3rd pick in the draft. Wonder why??? Hmmmm

No team is gonna pay that many draft picks for a guy who shits the bed in big moments. You're college takes are seriously flawed dude. You can't see the forest for the trees.

 

 

When the Rams draft Goff you can leave forever again. :)



#9 liquidfriend

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 12:50 AM

Clutch is the stupidest fucking metric in all of sports.
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#10 Mugsy

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 12:38 PM

Clutch is technically defined by two stats.

1. 4th quarter comebacks

2. Game winning drives

It has nothing to do with metrics. Go see on pro football reference for yourself (not pff). It is not about manipulating stats. It is black and white. It is very telling.

The Rams won't draft Goff. The reason is obvious. If they do I will leave forever again.



#11 kccrow

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 05:58 PM

Clutch is technically defined by two stats.

1. 4th quarter comebacks

2. Game winning drives

It has nothing to do with metrics. Go see on pro football reference for yourself (not pff). It is not about manipulating stats. It is black and white. It is very telling.

The Rams won't draft Goff. The reason is obvious. If they do I will leave forever again.

 

What's obvious is that Goff has 3 times more experience than Wentz at a MUCH higher level. He showed outstanding ability on the football field. The success of a team isn't on one player, and that Bears defense was as bad as I've seen in college football. The fact that California actually won any games giving up over 500 yards per contest is a testament to the offense. Goff's on field talent is obvious. His ability to even be "clutch" was severely mitigated by defensive collapses.

 

I'm just giving you shit about leaving. I just question your take on Goff v. Wentz in this case.



#12 liquidfriend

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 08:16 PM

Clutch is technically defined by two stats.
1. 4th quarter comebacks
2. Game winning drives
It has nothing to do with metrics. Go see on pro football reference for yourself (not pff). It is not about manipulating stats. It is black and white. It is very telling.
The Rams won't draft Goff. The reason is obvious. If they do I will leave forever again.

It's not. Football is a team sport and you can sling TD's in the 4th all you want, but it will mean nothing if your D folds up like a card table or your WR drops thr pass or your coordinator calls the wrong play and you work in a system that doesn't allow audibles.

#13 Mugsy

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 08:32 PM

What's obvious is that Goff has 3 times more experience than Wentz at a MUCH higher level. He showed outstanding ability on the football field. The success of a team isn't on one player, and that Bears defense was as bad as I've seen in college football. The fact that California actually won any games giving up over 500 yards per contest is a testament to the offense. Goff's on field talent is obvious. His ability to even be "clutch" was severely mitigated by defensive collapses.

 

I'm just giving you shit about leaving. I just question your take on Goff v. Wentz in this case.

 

 

He played in an air raid offense. Air raid QBs are shitting the bed right and left in the NFL now. No one is going to sell the farm for an air raid QB. Goff never showed up in big games. Who cares about the defense crow? Their entire team was designed to outscore people. The Rams are built like the Titans were when Fisher made a Superbowl run. Wentz compares to McNair in a lot of ways. Something like 30% of NFL games come down to the final drive. They don't need someone who can throw for 400 yards and pad stats. They need a QB who can win in those situations. That is the difference in them being a playoff team or not right now. That is the difference between 7-9 and 10-6. They don't need Kurt Warner. They need Steve McNair. 



#14 liquidfriend

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 05:37 AM

I don't think the Air Raid scheme itself makes a QB a bad pro, it's more of your typical air raid QB is very limited physically.

#15 Mugsy

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 01:08 PM

One of the worst labels a team can get is that "they aren't built to come back." At least 50% of the reason for that is on the QB. 



#16 kccrow

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Posted 21 April 2016 - 05:50 AM

My question to you Mugsy is, how do you know how clutch either of these QBs are?

 

Seriously.

Wentz started what,, 22 games with 21 against FCS competition?

Goff played for a team that consistently gave up a shitload of points and had to score a shitload just to compete in a Power 5 conference.

 

You CAN'T actually judge either on their ability to be "clutch" in the NFL based on their college resumes.

 

Is it "clutch" to be under constant pressure to score points, because you know your defense isn't stopping anyone, and actually deliver? If so, Goff is "clutch."

 

Is it "clutch" to lead your team to a FCS national title on a team consistently loaded with talent for that level and is routinely one of the top teams in Div 2? If so, then Wentz is "clutch."

 

With all due respect Mugs, it's fucking ridiculous to even conceive such a notion that you can argue whether college QBs can be "clutch" in the pros.

 

And this notion that Wentz played purely in a "pro-set," wherever that is coming from, is completely wrong. NDSU runs a lot of spread/shotgun.



#17 Mugsy

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Posted 21 April 2016 - 12:45 PM

Wentz wins the big games. Goff wets the bed. "Clutch" is largely figured in as part of the leadership quality.

 

Take Russell Wilson for example. He had six fourth quarter comebacks / game winning drives at Wisconsin. He was projected as a 5th round pick and jumped to the 3rd round because of this. It's why Bortles jumped so high in the draft. It translates to the NFL man. It's a big deal.

 

It is why Wentz is a top five lock. Think about it man. It's not about size or arm strength when it comes to a guy like him. It's about making the throws and leadership. Goff is not the leader that Wentz is and he'll go second because of it.

 

 

 

Either you see it or you don't. I am telling you, NFL GMs value what I am saying. 



#18 kccrow

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Posted 21 April 2016 - 02:16 PM

Wentz wins the big games. Goff wets the bed. "Clutch" is largely figured in as part of the leadership quality.

 

Take Russell Wilson for example. He had six fourth quarter comebacks / game winning drives at Wisconsin. He was projected as a 5th round pick and jumped to the 3rd round because of this. It's why Bortles jumped so high in the draft. It translates to the NFL man. It's a big deal.

 

It is why Wentz is a top five lock. Think about it man. It's not about size or arm strength when it comes to a guy like him. It's about making the throws and leadership. Goff is not the leader that Wentz is and he'll go second because of it.

 

 

 

Either you see it or you don't. I am telling you, NFL GMs value what I am saying. 

 

I'm not arguing that leadership and ability to remain calm under increased pressure don't matter, its true. I don't see any evidence of Goff "wetting the bed." The kid played for a terrible football team and made alot of chicken salad out of chicken shit. The throws I've seen him make in the face of pressure are uncanny good. The throws he's made when the pocket breaks down and he moves around are Aaron Rodgers-like. The kid is nails man. I haven't seen anything to say Goff isn't a leader. IF you were talking about Connor Cook, I'd agree. You're judging success of one based on a resume that doesn't include playing top-tier talent on a team routinely loaded with talent for that level against another that has had success playing on a team with sub-par talent in a top-tier league.



#19 Mugsy

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Posted 21 April 2016 - 06:09 PM

I think you are over analyzing it dude. It seems like you are having a hard time understanding why Wentz could go #1.  Look at the QBs who have played the game. Guys like Romo and Flacco aren't that uncommon anymore. They didn't play anyone in college either. I am telling you, the things that GMs and coaches value the most are changing and leadership is the biggest thing at the position. Too many games come down to the last drive in the NFL for them not to try and hone in on the clutch attribute. 

 

Even guys like Bortles and Carr are going in the first. Was their regular consistent competition that much better than Wentz's? I really don't know that it was. 



#20 kccrow

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Posted 22 April 2016 - 01:02 AM

I think you are over analyzing it dude. It seems like you are having a hard time understanding why Wentz could go #1.  Look at the QBs who have played the game. Guys like Romo and Flacco aren't that uncommon anymore. They didn't play anyone in college either. I am telling you, the things that GMs and coaches value the most are changing and leadership is the biggest thing at the position. Too many games come down to the last drive in the NFL for them not to try and hone in on the clutch attribute. 

 

Even guys like Bortles and Carr are going in the first. Was their regular consistent competition that much better than Wentz's? I really don't know that it was. 

 

There is zero evidence to support your theory that Goff isn't a leader. None.






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