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The Relationship Between Drafting Quarterbacks and Successful Seasons


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#21 PhataLerror

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 01:52 AM

Unless you have Tom Brady, most teams win a SB with a 1st round QB.

Except that this is really only technically correct: 27 Super Bowls were won by a quarterback selected in the first round of the draft, and 24 more weren't. Even without Brady's five Super Bowl wins, 19 out of 51 is not such a small sample so as to be irrelevant. Perhaps as significant: Sixteen Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks were drafted in the first round, while fifteen Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks were not.

 

My problem therefore with arguments for selecting a quarterback early is this: People argue on the basis of a stat that points in the direction of 51%, and then refuse to acknowledge every other pertinent piece of data.

 

Certainly you believe that all Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks were surrounded by one of the best teams in the league in any given year, don't you? Therefore you have to conclude that there's a whole lot a franchise needs to do right so that they can eventually win a Super Bowl, whether their quarterback is the most important player on the team or not.



#22 liquidfriend

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 03:40 AM

I don't think I would care about QB statistics, in this setting, pre 2004.

Passing game has changed dramatically in the last 15 years.

I think I would stack up playoff QB's and wins starting at that point to today.

#23 PhataLerror

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 04:13 AM

I don't think I would care about QB statistics, in this setting, pre 2004.

Passing game has changed dramatically in the last 15 years.

I think I would stack up playoff QB's and wins starting at that point to today.

Quarterbacking statistics have nothing to do with this.

 

You're not trying to argue that guys like Joe Montana or Brett Favre were insignificant parts on their respective teams during their Super Bowl-winning seasons, are you?

 

There was a time when quarterbacking was de-emphasized by the league in general, but for as long as there has been a forward pass, there has been a huge advantage in having an effective quarterback. Even so, having a quarterback has never been the only thing.


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#24 liquidfriend

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 06:20 AM

Quarterbacking statistics have nothing to do with this.
 
You're not trying to argue that guys like Joe Montana or Brett Favre were insignificant parts on their respective teams during their Super Bowl-winning seasons, are you?
 
There was a time when quarterbacking was de-emphasized by the league in general, but for as long as there has been a forward pass, there has been a huge advantage in having an effective quarterback. Even so, having a quarterback has never been the only thing.

No, I am saying that significant rule changes involving the passing game severely changed the dynamics of Offenses in the NFL and positional value has sharply ticked upward in result.

I don't think I really care too much about QB value in 1994 when things were much different in 1994.

#25 PhataLerror

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 01:45 PM

No, I am saying that significant rule changes involving the passing game severely changed the dynamics of Offenses in the NFL and positional value has sharply ticked upward in result.

I don't think I really care too much about QB value in 1994 when things were much different in 1994.

It seems like those rule changes made legacy quarterbacks arguably more valuable, seeing as they had to throw into tighter windows and had less protection in the pocket. The argument you just tried to make against those older statistics is the same argument people use in favor of Joe Montana when arguing that he is the Greatest Quarterback of All Time over Tom Brady.



#26 West

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 03:10 PM

Phatal,

 

Just curious, How many of the "1st Rd QB's won a Super Bowl for the Team that Drafted Them?

 

w



#27 xen

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 04:22 PM

Also curious about this... of the qb's who won more than one superbowl, how many of those were drafted in the first?

#28 PhataLerror

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:13 PM

Here's the dump. I'm sorry about the formatting.

 

Round SBW Method Full Name Team
Sup. Draft 1 Other Team Steve Young SF
Undrafted 1 Other Team Kurt Warner STL
1 4 Drafting Team Terry Bradshaw PIT
1 3 Drafting Team Troy Aikman DAL
1 2 Drafting Team Ben Roethlisb. PIT
1 2 Drafting Team Bob Griese MIA
1 2 Other Team Eli Manning NYG
1 2 Other Team John Elway DEN
1 1 Drafting Team Peyton Manning IND
1 1 Drafting Team Joe Flacco BAL
1 1 Drafting Team Jim McMahon CHI
1 1 Drafting Team Aaron Rodgers GB
1 1 Drafting Team Phil Simms NYG
1 1 Other Team Len Dawson KC
1 1 Other Team Doug Williams WAS
1 1 Other Team Jim Plunkett OAK
1 1 Other Team Jim Plunkett RAI
1 1 Other Team Peyton Manning DEN
1 1 Other Team Trent Dilfer BAL
1 1 Other Team Joe Namath NYJ
2 1 Drafting Team Ken Stabler OAK
2 1 Other Team Brett Favre GB
2 1 Other Team Drew Brees NO
3 4 Drafting Team Joe Montana SF
3 1 Drafting Team Jeff Hostetler NYG
3 1 Drafting Team Russell Wilson SEA
4 1 Other Team Joe Theismann WAS
6 5 Drafting Team Tom Brady NE
6 1 Drafting Team Mark Rypien WAS
9 1 Other Team Brad Johnson TB
9 1 Other Team Johnny Unitas BAL
10 2 Drafting Team Roger Staubach DAL
17 2 Drafting Team Bart Starr GB

Phatal,

 

Just curious, How many of the "1st Rd QB's won a Super Bowl for the Team that Drafted Them?

Also curious about this... of the qb's who won more than one superbowl, how many of those were drafted in the first?

• 33 out 51 Super Bowls were won by a team starting a quarterback they drafted. (Add 4 to that number if you believe that John Elway and Eli Manning should be considered as players drafted by the teams for which they won a Super Bowl, although they refused to play for the teams that held their exclusive signing rights.) 16 of those 33 wins involved a quarterback drafted in the first round. Nine of those other 18 wins were by Joe Montana and Tom Brady.

• 11 quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls. Seven of the 11 were drafted in the first round. Only six of those seven won two or more Super Bowls for the same team.


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#29 eraser

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:04 PM

Also curious about this... of the qb's who won more than one superbowl, how many of those were drafted in the first?

I bet I can help with that. I have a list of 1st round picks from 2000 to present.

1963 draft NFC

1 Terry Baker

1963 draft AFC

1964 draft NFC

5 Pete Bethard

7 Bill Munson

1964 draft AFC

1 Jim Concannon

2 Peter Bethard

1965 draft NFL

5 Craig Morton

12 Joe Namath

1965 draft AFL

1 Joe Namath *

1966 draft NFL

14 Randy Johnson

1966 draft AFL

2 Rick Norton

1967 draft

3 Steve Spurrier

4 Bob Griese **

25 Don Horn

1968 draft

11 Greg Landry

25 Eldridge Dickey

1969 draft

5 Greg Cook

9 Marty Domres

1970 draft

1 Terry Bradshaw ****

3 Mike Phipps

1971 draft

1 Jim Plunkett **

2 Archie Manning

3 Dan Pastorini

1972 draft

11 Jerry Tagge

14 John Reaves

1973 draft

2 Bert Jones

1974 draft

1975 draft

1 Steve Bartkowski

1976 draft

6 Richard Todd

1977 draft

19 Steve Pisarkiewicz 

27 Tommy Kramer

1978 draft

17 Doug Williams

1979 draft

3 Jack Thompson

7 Phil Simms

23 Steve Fuller

1980 draft

15 Marc Wilson

28 Mark Malone

1981 draft

6 Rich Campbell

1982 draft

5 Jim McMahon

1983 draft

1 John Elway **

7 Todd Blackledge

14 Jim Kelly

15 Tony Eason

24 Ken O'Brien

27 Dan Marino

1984 draft

1985 draft

S Bernie Kosar

1986 draft

3 Jim Everett

12 Chuck Long

1987 draft

1989 draft

1 Troy Aikman ***

S Steve Walsh

S Timm Rosenbach

1990 draft

1 Jeff George

7 Andre Ware

1991 draft

16 Dan McGwire

24 Todd Marinovich

1992 draft

6 David Klingler

26 Tommy Maddox

S Dave Brown

1993 draft

1 Drew Bledsoe

2 Rick Mirer

1994 draft

3 Heath Shuler

6 Trent Dilfer

1995 draft

3 Steve McNair

1996 draft

1997 draft

26 Jim Drunkenmiller

1998 draft

1 Peyton Manning **

2 Ryan Leaf

1999 draft

1 Tim Couch

2 Donovan McNabb

3 Akili Smith

11 Daunte Culpepper

12 Cade McCown

2000 draft

18 Chad Pennington

2001 draft

1 Michael Vick

2002 draft

1 David Carr

3 Joey Harrington

32 Patrick Ramsey

2003 draft

1 Carson Palmer

7 Byron Leftwich

19 Ken Boller

22 Rex Grossman

2004 draft

1 Eli Manning **

4 Philip Rivers

11 Ben Roethlisberger **

22 J P Losman

2005 draft

1 Alex Smith

24 Aaron Rodgers

25 Jason Campbell

2006 draft

3 Vince Young

10 Matt Leinart

11 Jay Cutler

2007 draft

1 JaMarcus Russell

22 Brady Quinn

2008 draft

3 Matt Ryan

18 Joe Flacco

2009 draft

1 Matthew Stafford

5 Mark Sanchez

17 Josh Freeman

2010 draft

1 Sam Bradford

25 Tim Tebow

2011 draft

1 Cam Newton

8 Jake Locker

10 Blaine Gabbert

12 Christian Ponder

2012 draft

1 Andrew Luck

2 Robert Griffin III

8 Ryan Tannehill

22 Brandon Weeden

2013 draft

16 E J Manuel

2014 draft

3 Blake Bortles

22 Johnny Manziel

32 Teddy Bridgewater

2016 draft

1 Jered Goff

2 Carson Wentz

26 Paxton Lynch

 

Multiple Superbowl winners not drafted in 1st round

Tom Brady *****

Joe Montana ****

 

Prior to NFL/AFL drafts

Roger Staubach **

Bart Star **

 

* Superbowl win



#30 eraser

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:43 PM

130 quarterbacks were selected in the first round since 1955.

 

I used 1955 because that was the year Johnny Unitas was drafted in round 9, and that was the earliest year a QB was drafted, and won a Superbowl.

 

12 quarterbacks have won the Superbowl multiple times. Of those multiple winners, 9 quarterbacks were selected in the first round.

 

Therefore, the chance of acquiring a multiple Superbowl QB in the 1st round is 1:14.4.

 

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 1 TDs
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs,
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs

 

61 years passed since Johnny U was drafted (the first SB winner ever drafted). From that point on, 130 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. Some years there are no quarterbacks selected in the first round. On average, 2.13 QBs have been drafted in the first round per year. Over the past ten years, that average rose to 2.4 QBs per year. It has not served them well. Only 1 QB taken in the past ten drafts have won a Superbowl. 28 QBs were taken in the preceding the ten years, and 4 of those won a Superbowl.



#31 liquidfriend

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 11:02 PM

It seems like those rule changes made legacy quarterbacks arguably more valuable, seeing as they had to throw into tighter windows and had less protection in the pocket. The argument you just tried to make against those older statistics is the same argument people use in favor of Joe Montana when arguing that he is the Greatest Quarterback of All Time over Tom Brady.

No, that's not what I am saying. Although I will say yes, someone like Montana and what he racked up is nore impressive compared to what QBs rack up now.

I'm not making any argument against the older QB's. I am saying to gain a good perspective to charting the QB stomping grounds now, in terms of QB value and Super Bowl wins I wouldn't use pre 2004 data in my study. The rule changes changed a lot about importance of the position and the value they hold.

#32 eraser

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 05:52 AM

The point I want to make plainly clear. If you believe drafting a QB in the first round is a panacea for winning in the NFL, then you are deluding yourself. The odds are very much against it.

 

You have to pay to play, but it involves a tremendous amount of luck. 13 out of 14 QBs taken in the first round do not win multiple Superbowls. 

 

I believe something like only 24 or 25 first round QBs have ever won a Superbowl. That is 1 Superbowl QB out of every 5.2 first round taken. On average, every 5 years about 2 Superbowl winners are drafted. It is extremely rare, and difficult to find a QB of that stature.


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#33 DieHard

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 11:24 AM

I think it was a passing league before the rash of rule changes.

Most 300+ yard games in a season.

Gannon 2002
Marino 1984
Moon 1990
Warner 1999
Warner 2001
Fours 1980
Warner 2000
Green 2004
Bugler 2006
Bree's 2006
Brady 2007

I should have picked different stat. Seeing Gannon with the record or 10 300+ games in a season just makes me said.

#34 PhataLerror

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 12:38 PM

I think it was a passing league before the rash of rule changes.

Most 300+ yard games in a season.

Gannon 2002
Marino 1984
Moon 1990
Warner 1999
Warner 2001
Fours 1980
Warner 2000
Green 2004
Bugler 2006
Bree's 2006
Brady 2007

I should have picked different stat. Seeing Gannon with the record or 10 300+ games in a season just makes me said.

A lot of those guys you listed never even played in a Super Bowl, much less won one. There's more to being able to compete in the NFL than just to have a quarterback that can chuck the ball for big yardage. It has continued to be the case that everything needs to line up: Quality of offensive line pass blocking, quality receiving targets, scheme, and game flow all determine whether a quarterback has to throw the ball enough to reach 300 yards in a game.



#35 DieHard

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 02:17 PM

I didn't say anything about Super Bowls. Liquid said the rule changes changed offenses. I assumed he meant, turned it into a passing league. I suggest it was already a passing league and the rule changes were to preserve it since the defensive players have gotten so devastating to the offensive talent. Just my opinion.

#36 West

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 05:39 PM

-facts are important to form a solid opinion.  Phatal and E, I want to thank you for great research and analysis.  I am sure we will see an article in the KC papers or one of the fan websites about just how hard it is to draft a SB QB.  Well done!

 

w



#37 eraser

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 06:50 PM

-facts are important to form a solid opinion.  Phatal and E, I want to thank you for great research and analysis.  I am sure we will see an article in the KC papers or one of the fan websites about just how hard it is to draft a SB QB.  Well done!

 

w

Yes, they tend to follow up on some of what we write in here.

 

Seth Keysor @RealMNchiefsfan on Twitter is a pretty good analyst to follow. He is doing a great job on analyzing players on the team, and on the upcoming draft. It is hard to translate talent on the college level to the pros.

 

Terez Paylor is a credit to the Star. He is definitely worth following, and posts links on Twitter. Mellinger is a good writer. The Topeka paper lost a good writer in Herbe Teope, who transferred his talents to New Orleans. His replacement at Chiefs Digest, Matt Derrick, is a good guy to follow.

 

Matt Connor got promoted to the top position at ArrowheadAddict,com. He is also on Twitter. There are a lot of writers for the Chiefs now, and some are doing a great job.

 

They all steal from each other. I don't think Adam Teicher would be employed if not for being able to recycle. He has taken it to a new level. 

 

Joel Thorman writes a lot of pieces on the Chiefs. Ryan Tracey does a good job on podcasts. I am going to be missing some people, but there are lots of people who do great local work on the Chiefs. It is a far cry from the days of Carl Peterson, where the news was controlled like the Russians did under the Soviet system.



#38 DieHard

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 07:42 PM

-facts are important to form a solid opinion. Phatal and E, I want to thank you for great research and analysis. I am sure we will see an article in the KC papers or one of the fan websites about just how hard it is to draft a SB QB. Well done!

w


Agreed. I enjoyed it.

#39 Okiechief1

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 09:17 PM

I think it was a passing league before the rash of rule changes.

Most 300+ yard games in a season.

Gannon 2002
Marino 1984
Moon 1990
Warner 1999
Warner 2001
Fours 1980
Warner 2000
Green 2004
Bugler 2006
Bree's 2006
Brady 2007

I should have picked different stat. Seeing Gannon with the record or 10 300+ games in a season just makes me said.


I don't know if singular games prove that it was a passing league.

Just doing a quick search starting at 80 and going to 85 their was on the average only 2 to 3 guys that attempted over 600 passes in a season. Only 2 to 3 guys a year hit the 4000 yards in a season.

I thought their would be some progression starting in 90 but the same holds true from 90 to 95. 2 to 3 a year attempted over 600 passes and a the same amount for 4000 yard passes.

Don't have the time to see where it shifted but I looked at the last 2 years in those same categories for 2015 and 16. Both years had 6 guys that attempted over 600 passes and several more within the 580 to 600 range. 4000 yard passers were at 10 and 12.

Those numbers would at least suggest that its more of a passing league now as the number of 600 passing attempts doubled and the 4000 yards passing in a season more than doubled.

#40 eraser

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 09:25 PM

The biggest change in the passing game is the actual distance the ball travels. The WO used to run a deep or intermediate pattern, and catch a pass. The running back was used to run the ball. There was sort of a separation. Now, running backs, and wide outs are almost indistinguishable. Running backs run wheel routes, but more often receive passes that  are glorified hand offs. A receiver cuts off patterns more often, and takes the ball directly from the QB more often.






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