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The Relationship Between Drafting Quarterbacks and Successful Seasons


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#81 DefensiveMan

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Posted 03 April 2017 - 11:02 PM

I'm all for stacking the defense. We almost certainly need to go ILB or OLB for the 27th pick. Like Crow said, he doesn't improve drastically just need to build the other side of the ball. We need a more controlled running game for that to happen as well. Half of defense is ball control on offense. 



#82 PhataLerror

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 03:35 AM

Another snapshot as I continue to look for controls in evaluating what really matters in acquiring a quarterback: What is the win percentage of quarterbacks according to years of experience? I've seen some argue that the best way to win a Super Bowl is to fall into a situation like that of the Seattle Seahawks: Draft a NFL-viable quarterback onto an already talented team, and win a Super Bowl with him before the clock strikes midnight on his rookie contract. Do the numbers say that's a replicable recipe for success?

 

Exp Pct
1   0.396
2   0.471
3   0.509
4   0.528
5   0.531
6   0.545
7   0.560
8   0.545
9   0.533
10  0.517
11  0.549
12  0.524
13  0.579
14  0.554
15  0.599
16  0.594
17  0.624
18  0.515
19  0.618
20  0.444
21  0.400

 

After adjusting the samples to acknowledge only the average win-loss record for a quarterback playing at least half of his team's games in a given year, there's clearly a sharp learning curve for rookie quarterbacks; the Dak Prescott rookie season is not the norm. Not a lot of quarterbacks play into their seventeenth season, but that's the year in which quarterbacks break the .600 barrier. (Even so, those are generally tenured quarterbacks that are well into their decline.)

 

I'm not advocating any sort of decision-making merely based on these numbers, but this is the average.
 

Here are the numbers without the qualifier: All 23838 quarterback starts since 1966:

 

Exp Pct
1   0.372
2   0.443
3   0.477
4   0.494
5   0.509
6   0.514
7   0.533
8   0.528
9   0.514
10  0.496
11  0.513
12  0.514
13  0.562
14  0.537
15  0.562
16  0.563
17  0.562
18  0.500
19  0.491
20  0.500
21  0.429
22  *
23  0.500
 
* No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has ever started a game when in his 22nd year in the league.


#83 xen

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 08:08 PM

I love the idea of upgrading at QB but I am having a hard time finding viable alternatives.

Drafting a QB in a middle round is fine.

I place Run Defense Improvement at the top of my list as well as another guard.

w


Meh. Run defense is lower on my list. It is a passing league. You can be mediocre at stopping the run as long as you have a good pass defense and still get to the big game.

Backs and pass rushers only early in the draft if we go defense. 2 down MLB's and run stuffers can be had later in the draft.

The only exception I would make to this is a Keuchly style wrecking ball stud 3 down MLB that offers a ton of versatility and some pass rush chops. Not many of those around though.

#84 oldtimer

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 08:39 PM

Meh. Run defense is lower on my list. It is a passing league. You can be mediocre at stopping the run as long as you have a good pass defense and still get to the big game.

Backs and pass rushers only early in the draft if we go defense. 2 down MLB's and run stuffers can be had later in the draft.

The only exception I would make to this is a Keuchly style wrecking ball stud 3 down MLB that offers a ton of versatility and some pass rush chops. Not many of those around though.

 

 

is Foster that guy?



#85 xen

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 11:14 PM

is Foster that guy?

I would think so. Does a lot of things well and pretty pro ready. I doubt he lasts til our pick though.

Foster has great football iq already. Hell of a player.

Hasaan Reddick might be too. But he would take a lot longer to adapt to our defense.
He's no sure thing but sure seems like he could be great in the middle of a 34. Would be a will in a 43 though I would think.

#86 PhataLerror

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 04:36 AM

Here's a question: What would you expect the difference in total win percentage to be between the first three quarterbacks selected from every draft and that of the rest of the field (including undrafted free agents) in starts since the beginning of the Super Bowl era?



#87 liquidfriend

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 01:19 AM

I would think so. Does a lot of things well and pretty pro ready. I doubt he lasts til our pick though.
Foster has great football iq already. Hell of a player.
Hasaan Reddick might be too. But he would take a lot longer to adapt to our defense.
He's no sure thing but sure seems like he could be great in the middle of a 34. Would be a will in a 43 though I would think.

I think Reddick is gone by the Chiefs pick too. A lot of teams with need at ILB.

#88 xen

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 01:25 AM

I think Reddick is gone by the Chiefs pick too. A lot of teams with need at ILB.


Yeah and reddick is versatile so he could go high. A lot of teams will like him I would think.

#89 liquidfriend

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 03:16 AM

Yes, very much that. I also think the ILB class gets pretty grim after those first round caliber guys, so I am anticipating a big run on them in the middle of the first round.

#90 DieHard

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 10:26 PM

I would take a stud pass rushe over a run stuffing ILB. I think our run defense got better with the replacement of Poe because mostly of his ailing back. If DJ makes it back healthy we can improve on run defense. I don't know if we have the horses to mount a pass rush. Even if Houston is healthy you need to have 2.

#91 liquidfriend

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 10:34 PM

I think we need to give Houston time to actually recover. Before this short era with HGH use, ACL's were at least a full year to recover.

The big piece of the puzzle will be Dee Fordand what they think about him.

#92 DieHard

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 11:04 PM

Good call on Houston. I was encouraged with Fords production on the left, but he is so one dimensional that he can't play there if we have Houston on the field. For some reason he looked like the old Ford on the right. Contract year though. Who knows. Maybe.

#93 DefensiveMan

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Posted 09 April 2017 - 12:24 AM

I'm actually good on Dee Ford. No need to renew.




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